River Murray Delivery Risks
Delivering water in the Murray system has always been challenging due to the long distances. It takes about three weeks to deliver water from Hume Dam to Sunraysia. “Shortfalls” can occur when river operators aren’t able to deliver people their water – including irrigators and the environment – where and when they want to use it.
In the River Murray downstream of the Barmah-Millewa reach, there has always been a risk of not being able to deliver all the water that water users are entitled to during peak demand periods over summer and autumn. River operators have a strong track record in actively managing the system to deliver water when and where it is wanted and avoiding such shortfalls. However, a shortfall can happen, if there is either
- a heatwave and a sudden spike in demand (a delivery shortfall)
- not enough capacity in the system to supply water to meet all downstream needs throughout summer and autumn (a system shortfall).
Understanding and managing delivery risks together
Victoria is working with the other River Murray states, New South Wales and South Australia, along with the Murray-Darling Basin Authority to better understand delivery risks, including how the risks are changing and how we can collectively manage them. The Independent Panel overseeing this interstate delivery risks work has reported that delivery risks are real, and that they will increase in the future.
A joint report, Managing Delivery Risks in the River Murray System, was published in November 2020 that presents key findings from recent studies about these risks and the actions needed to support governments and water users to manage them.
The Department of Energy, Environment and Climate Action has prepared a fact sheet that summarises the key elements of this report to help water users and communities better understand delivery risks in the River Murray System, what’s changing and the actions needed to help governments and water users respond to these risks.
Victoria is working with the other River Murray governments to make sure water users are better informed about their delivery risks, including the latest information about risks in this report, so they can consider these in managing their business risks.
The Department of Energy, Environment and Climate Action (then DELWP), in collaboration with the Murray-Darling Basin Authority consulted with various key Commonwealth, cross-jurisdiction and Victorian stakeholders, and Traditional Owners about delivery risks in the River Murray in 2020. Feedback from Victorian stakeholders and Traditional Owners during this consultation has been captured in a Report and Snapshot.
The What We Heard Report provides context about key themes that were raised and discusses the next steps for the Victorian Government. The What We Heard Snapshot is a summary of the report and outlines the engagement approach, the key themes raised during the consultation and the next steps.
What’s changing in the system
Significant changes across the connected Murray-Darling Basin over the last 10-20 years are making it increasingly difficult to deliver water where and when it is needed for irrigation, other consumptive uses, and the environment, without damaging the environmental health of our waterways. These changes include the timing and location of demand for water in the Murray downstream of Barmah, the reduced channel capacity through the Barmah-Millewa reach and less frequent access to water in the Menindee Lakes.
Climate change will further decrease supply due to less rainfall and increased demand due to warmer weather – this is expected to further exacerbate delivery risks in the Murray downstream of Barmah.
A high-level summary of the changes is presented in the figure below.
What is the being done to respond to increasing delivery risks?
In addition to working with the other River Murray governments to make sure delivery risks are minimised, the Victorian government:
- Introduced new Goulburn trading and river operating rules to ensure that traded water can be delivered within the ecological tolerances of Victorian rivers without increasing delivery risks.
- Amended Victoria’s Water Act to introduce the ‘Place of Take approvals’ framework to clarify and protect the rights of water users to have water delivered down rivers in a shortfall and enable more flexibility for water users to manage their own delivery risks through the trade of extraction share.
- Introduced a cap on extraction share in the Murray downstream of Barmah to protect the rights of existing entitlement holders and prevent their rights from being eroded.
- Continues to work with other states and the Murray-Darling Basin Authority to make sure water users are informed about their delivery risks and prioritising clearer and certain delivery rights to water during peak extraction periods so water users can manage their own business risks.
More information
More information on these changes can be found in a series of reports prepared and commissioned jointly by the Murray-Darling Basin Authority (MDBA), Victoria, New South Wales and South Australia to better understand and manage delivery risks. These include:
- Independent Panel on Capacity Risks Report (December 2019)
- An Investigation into the Location of Horticultural Water Demands
- Historical flows and water use in the southern connected Murray-Darling Basin
- Changes in irrigated crop area 2003 to 2021
- Review of historical water use
- Barmah Choke channel capacity and geomorphic investigation.
As more information becomes available it will be published on the MDBA’s water demand (shortfalls) website.
What is the risk of River Murray shortfall this season?
During the peak irrigation season the MBDA reports on the current risk of a delivery shortfall in the River Operations Weekly Report.
The Annual Operating Outlook for the River Murray System usually includes commentary on the risk of system shortfall each year. This outlook is published in July and updated in December.
What does this mean for you?
Water users in the Murray downstream of the Barmah-Millewa reach need to be aware that delivery risks are real and that while river operators will do everything they can to avoid shortfalls, there may be occasions where that can’t be done and their water use needs to be rationed.
When shortfalls in the River Murray system cannot be avoided, the water available for delivery is shared between water users in the affected rationing area, including by water users in NSW and South Australia. This means water use needs to be temporarily rationed to fairly share the impacts of the shortfall.
In Victoria, water users are rationed in proportion to their extraction share (if a river diverter) or in proportion to their delivery share (if in an irrigation district).
The need to restrict water users has been very rare. River operators have been able to use the system’s buffering capacity to avoid the need for rationing of deliveries to Murray water users on all but two occasions. In March 2002, a 10 gigalitre shortfall affected all water users over a two-week period. Environmental water holders were also restricted on one occasion in late 2018 when channel capacity was fully committed to running the system to meet expected summer demands for both irrigation and environmental use.
To manage the impacts of a shortfall to their irrigation business, water users may choose to build on farm storage or talk to their water corporation about accessing additional delivery share or extraction share.
River Murray shortfall fact sheets
The Department of Energy, Environment and Climate Action has prepared fact sheets to help Victorian water users and communities better understand and manage shortfalls in the Murray River downstream of Barmah.
The first fact sheet explains what shortfalls are, how they are managed and how different water users may be impacted.
The second fact sheet provides a summary of River Murray delivery risks and how they are managed, and informs water users on what a shortfall means for them and how to stay informed.
Victorian River Murray Shortfall Response Plan
Victoria recognizes the importance of having a shortfall response plan in place to ensure that the response to such an event is coordinated and effective and limits the impacts and consequences for water users and the community.
The Department of Energy, Environment and Climate Action has prepared the Victorian River Murray Shortfall Response Plan to provide confidence and transparency in the process of managing shortfall events to Victorian water users and the community.
This plan is an operational plan outlining Victorian arrangements for the coordinated response to a delivery or system shortfall in the River Murray below Barmah. Its purpose is to ensure the response to a shortfall is implemented in a way which limits impacts and consequences for water users and the community, and meets the requirements of the Murray-Darling Basin Authority.
It is primarily used by the Victorian Government and agencies within the water sector with a role in the management of shortfall events. As an operational document it is subject to regular updates and will be amended over time.
This plan is based on Victorian interim water sharing arrangements for a shortfall, agreed to by Victorian agencies for 2021-2022 and 2022-2023. In November 2023, the Water and Catchment Legislation Amendment Act 2021 will come into effect, amending the Water Act 1989. The changes will enable Victoria to adopt a new approach to water delivery entitlements that will empower water users to manage their own delivery risks in declared systems. This version of the Victorian River Murray Shortfall Response Plan will be updated to reflect the changes that are introduced by the new legislation once this comes into effect.